Hurricane season is just over a month away (though tropical systems can form outside of that time frame), and we’ve got another hurricane forecast for you, this time from University of Pennsylvania scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Shannon Christiansen and Penn State alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar.

Due to the persistence of higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Main Development Region, development of a moderate La Niña pattern in late Summer or Fall, and the average conditions experienced over the past Winter, they are predicting 27 to 39 named storms, with a best guess of 33.

The team at the University of Pennsylvania has proven one of the more accurate groups to issue these kinds of forecasts since they began doing so in 2007, and the only times they were wrong it was because they underpredicted the number of storms that would form, which makes these unprecedently high numbers especially concerning. The report does point out that if the La Niña conditions do not materialize, the number of storms will be lower, though still relatively high.

It’s important to remember that just because a tropical system forms it doesn’t mean that it will make landfall, though if that many storms were to form the odds of one doing so would significantly increase. Likewise, the position of our area along the coast does drastically reduce our odds of a direct impact versus states that jut further into the Atlantic Ocean like North Carolina or Massachusetts. Still, this is shaping up to be another year where it is necessary to keep a close eye on the tropics, and it would be wise to have emergency plans in place just to be safe.

Cover image created with Midjourney using the prompt: “Renaissance painting of a hurricane viewed from space.”