While no one can predict what will happen during hurricane season with 100% accuracy, Colorado State University is considered one of the best at giving us all a decent idea of what to expect, and they have just issued their forecast for the 2024 season. This year in the Atlantic Ocean they are calling for 23 named storms, 11 of which will become hurricanes, and 5 of which will become major hurricanes (category 3 or above). For comparison, from 1991 to 2020 the average has been 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.
The higher than usual season is expected due to favorable conditions for development, some of which are already in place, such as sea surface temperatures being well above normal and a shift to a La Niña pattern. It’s important to remember that just because a tropical system forms it doesn’t mean that it will make landfall, though with CSU putting the chances of at least 1 major storm impacting the United States at 62% it is still worth keeping an eye on. For those who are curious, the entire report can be found here: https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04.pdf.
[UPDATE] As of 11/27/24 it looks like the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is coming to a close with a total of 18 storms, 11 of which became hurricanes. 5 of those became major hurricanes. This means that the forecast overestimated the total number of named storms by 5, but got the other numbers exactly correct.
Cover image created with Midjourney using the prompt: “Renaissance painting of a hurricane viewed from space.”
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